Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -11.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -10.5 (-14.5) | 142.3 (-8.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -9.8 (-13.8) | 142.5 (-8.5) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -9.4 (-13.4) | 141.7 (-7.7) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -8.8 (-12.8) | 143.5 (-9.5) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | XAV 68 – 66 DEP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DEP 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | XAV 85 – 68 DEP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | XAV 77 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 29, 2024 | XAV 91 – 58 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 16-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#21) | 5.7 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#17) | 0.98 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#18) | 1.34 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#15) | 0.521 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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