Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +1 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -2.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -2.2 (-1.2) | 130.6 (-15.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -2.0 (-1.0) | 131.7 (-16.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -1.7 (-0.7) | 132.6 (-17.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -1.1 (-0.1) | 133.6 (-18.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 62 CSU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | CSU 83 – 74 SDSU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 50 CSU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | CSU 68 – 63 SDSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SDSU 75 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-4 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 58.1 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#54) | 10.6 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#31) | 1.92 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#33) | 2.42 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#28) | 0.602 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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