Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +8 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -8.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -9.5 (-1.5) | 142.5 (-4.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -8.0 (-0.0) | 144.5 (-6.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -7.4 (+0.6) | 143.9 (-5.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -7.6 (+0.4) | 144.7 (-6.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DEN 78 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 23, 2026 | NDSU 82 – 77 DEN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NDSU 89 – 84 DEN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NDSU 69 – 50 DEN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEN 77 – 71 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#203) | -7.4 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#151) | -1.59 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#163) | -1.95 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#167) | 0.422 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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