Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
Ohio Valley Conference · Ellis T. Johnson Arena · February 5, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -11.5 Home covered
O/U 130.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total MORE win
Actual MORE +25 129 Won
Massey MORE -10.4 (+14.6)
Massey Totals 131.3 (-2.3)
Bradley-Terry 97%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML MORE -9.3 (+15.7) 132.4 (-3.4) 80%
Baseline ML MORE -9.5 (+15.5) 134.2 (-5.2) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -9.3 (+15.7) 135.0 (-6.0) 83%
Efficiency Plus ML MORE -10.5 (+14.5) 133.6 (-4.6) 82%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 21, 2024 MORE 6358 APSU
Nov 30, 2023 MORE 6150 APSU
Jan 8, 2022 MORE 6655 APSU
Feb 6, 2021 MORE 7574 APSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MORE APSU
Overall 23-11 12-17
Conference 13-5 8-10
Home 12-2 6-5
Away 8-8 6-11
Neutral 3-1 0-1
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 68.6 62.6
Avg Pts Against 64.4 69.3
Massey 2.1 (#129) -5.1 (#259)
Bradley-Terry 1.38 (#73) -1.42 (#289)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.62 (#85) -1.73 (#282)
RPI 0.564 (#73) 0.442 (#279)
Shooting & Four Factors MORE APSU
FG% 45.8% 41.3%
3PT% 36.7% 30.0%
REB / G 35.8 33.1
OREB / G 10.1 10.0
AST / TO 1.11 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 47.7%
TOV% 21.2% 22.0%
ORB% 31.5% 28.4%
FT Rate 21.0% 18.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 51.4%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 20.8%
DRB% 70.4% 68.7%
Opp FT Rate 14.7% 25.5%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.