Funky Claude was running in and out / pulling kids out the ground "Smoke On the Water" - Deep Purple
Ohio Valley Conference · Ellis T. Johnson Arena · February 6, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -2.5 Away covered
O/U 132.5 Over
Money MORE -138 / APSU +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total MORE win
Actual MORE +1 149 Won
Massey MORE -6.1 (-5.1)
Massey Totals 130.6 (+18.4)
Bradley-Terry 79%
Weighted B-T 88%
Baseline Plus ML MORE -5.3 (-4.3) 132.3 (+16.7) 74%
Baseline ML MORE -5.9 (-4.9) 133.6 (+15.4) 71%
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -5.8 (-4.8) 132.2 (+16.8) 75%
Efficiency Plus ML MORE -4.3 (-3.3) 128.0 (+21.0) 70%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 21, 2024 MORE 6358 APSU
Nov 30, 2023 MORE 6150 APSU
Feb 5, 2022 MORE 7752 APSU
Jan 8, 2022 MORE 6655 APSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MORE APSU
Overall 23-8 14-13
Conference 17-3 10-10
Home 12-1 8-5
Away 8-5 4-6
Neutral 3-2 2-2
Last 5 5-0 3-2
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 68.1 72.9
Avg Pts Against 64.7 71.4
Massey 0.7 (#155) -2.7 (#209)
Bradley-Terry 0.55 (#131) -0.30 (#199)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.57 (#142) -0.90 (#233)
RPI 0.536 (#103) 0.482 (#198)
Shooting & Four Factors MORE APSU
FG% 45.4% 45.0%
3PT% 32.8% 34.1%
REB / G 35.8 34.7
OREB / G 9.8 12.4
AST / TO 0.74 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.5% 51.0%
TOV% 24.1% 22.0%
ORB% 30.5% 35.8%
FT Rate 22.9% 20.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.1% 55.0%
Opp TOV% 19.2% 21.3%
DRB% 75.2% 72.8%
Opp FT Rate 17.7% 21.7%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.