Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
Ellis T. Johnson Arena · November 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -0.5 Home covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money MORE +100 / APSU -120
Model Predictions
Spread Total MORE win
Actual MORE +5 121 Won
Massey APSU -4.4 (+9.4)
Massey Totals 142.6 (-21.6)
Bradley-Terry 8%
Weighted B-T 3%
Baseline Plus ML APSU -3.2 (+8.2) 138.1 (-17.1) 33%
Baseline ML APSU -3.8 (+8.8) 142.2 (-21.2) 28%
Baseline Tuned ML APSU -2.3 (+7.3) 140.5 (-19.5) 34%
Efficiency Plus ML APSU -3.2 (+8.2) 135.3 (-14.3) 40%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 30, 2023 MORE 6150 APSU
Feb 5, 2022 MORE 7752 APSU
Jan 8, 2022 MORE 6655 APSU
Feb 6, 2021 MORE 7574 APSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MORE APSU
Overall 15-17 14-19
Conference 10-10 8-10
Home 9-5 8-5
Away 6-10 4-13
Neutral 0-2 2-1
Last 5 0-3 2-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 63.7 70.1
Avg Pts Against 69.8 75.8
Massey -11.4 (#338) -0.2 (#182)
Bradley-Terry -1.44 (#289) 2.42 (#20)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.17 (#288) 3.31 (#36)
RPI 0.362 (#319) 0.756 (#9)
Shooting & Four Factors MORE APSU
FG% 33.3% 41.3%
3PT% 23.1% 30.8%
REB / G 35.3 29.7
OREB / G 9.7 9.7
AST / TO 0.56 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 37.1% 47.1%
TOV% 21.6% 15.8%
ORB% 24.8% 27.1%
FT Rate 28.3% 23.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.9% 53.5%
Opp TOV% 9.2% 19.2%
DRB% 74.0% 62.5%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 27.5%

Game Analysis

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