Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -120 MORE +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORE +11 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -2.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (-19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -3.0 (-14.0) | 132.8 (-21.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -3.0 (-14.0) | 133.4 (-22.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -2.9 (-13.9) | 133.0 (-22.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORE -0.2 (-10.8) | 131.2 (-20.2) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2024 | MORE 63 – 58 APSU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | MORE 77 – 52 APSU |
| Jan 8, 2022 | MORE 66 – 55 APSU |
| Feb 6, 2021 | MORE 75 – 74 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-12 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#267) | -1.3 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#214) | 0.71 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#234) | 1.21 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#235) | 0.556 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 36.5% |
Game Analysis
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