Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +23 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SYR -6.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -6.0 (+17.0) | 151.9 (+9.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -6.2 (+16.8) | 149.7 (+11.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -5.5 (+17.5) | 149.9 (+11.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -6.0 (+17.0) | 151.5 (+9.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LOU 77 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LOU 85 – 61 SYR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SYR 82 – 76 LOU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | SYR 94 – 92 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2023 | SYR 70 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#77) | 3.7 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#116) | 0.56 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#115) | 0.65 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#108) | 0.531 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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