Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +163 SYR -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +6 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | SYR -4.9 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -5.8 (-0.2) | 151.4 (+6.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -5.9 (-0.1) | 152.0 (+6.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -5.2 (-0.8) | 150.2 (+7.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -5.4 (-0.6) | 152.0 (+6.0) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LOU 77 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LOU 85 – 61 SYR |
| Feb 8, 2024 | SYR 94 – 92 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2023 | SYR 70 – 69 LOU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | SYR 92 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-11 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#190) | 6.4 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#233) | 1.85 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#216) | 2.18 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#294) | 0.589 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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