Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -1350 SYR +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +15 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -15.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -14.9 (+0.1) | 161.7 (-22.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -13.3 (+1.7) | 160.1 (-21.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -13.5 (+1.5) | 157.9 (-18.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -14.5 (+0.5) | 158.7 (-19.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2025 | LOU 85 – 61 SYR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SYR 82 – 76 LOU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | SYR 94 – 92 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2023 | SYR 70 – 69 LOU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | SYR 92 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 20.9 (#10) | 8.3 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#28) | 1.29 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#26) | 1.71 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#33) | 0.532 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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