Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +333 SYR -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +1 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | SYR -9.6 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -9.7 (+8.7) | 143.4 (-4.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -10.1 (+9.1) | 142.3 (-3.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -10.0 (+9.0) | 141.7 (-2.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -8.5 (+7.5) | 144.3 (-5.3) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LOU 77 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LOU 85 – 61 SYR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SYR 82 – 76 LOU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | SYR 94 – 92 LOU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | SYR 92 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 10-10 |
| Home | 4-13 | 11-7 |
| Away | 0-11 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#342) | 2.8 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#349) | 0.22 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#333) | 0.45 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#323) | 0.509 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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