Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | SYR +320 LOU -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +24 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -8.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -8.1 (-15.9) | 149.2 (-3.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -7.0 (-17.0) | 149.5 (-3.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -7.7 (-16.3) | 147.9 (-1.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -7.4 (-16.6) | 149.4 (-3.4) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LOU 77 – 62 SYR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SYR 82 – 76 LOU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | SYR 94 – 92 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2023 | SYR 70 – 69 LOU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | SYR 92 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 18-2 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#137) | 13.8 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#147) | 3.15 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#128) | 3.97 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#135) | 0.649 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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