Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SYR -450 LOU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +2 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | SYR -10.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -9.5 (-7.5) | 151.5 (+34.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -11.1 (-9.1) | 151.3 (+34.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -10.3 (-8.3) | 148.7 (+37.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -10.4 (-8.4) | 149.7 (+36.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LOU 77 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LOU 85 – 61 SYR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SYR 82 – 76 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2023 | SYR 70 – 69 LOU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | SYR 92 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-11 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#95) | -1.3 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#50) | -0.59 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#60) | -0.55 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#23) | 0.457 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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