We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Siena Saints
60 – 74
FINAL Conference
Rider Broncs
Metro Conference · MVP Arena · February 5, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread SIE -4.0 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total SIE win
Actual RID +14 134 Lost
Massey SIE -5.1 (-19.1) — —
Massey Totals — 131.6 (+2.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 86% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 87% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SIE -5.2 (-19.2) 137.6 (-3.6) 69% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML SIE -4.0 (-18.0) 136.5 (-2.5) 67% ✗
Baseline ML SIE -4.3 (-18.3) 135.2 (-1.2) 65% ✗
Baseline Plus ML SIE -4.0 (-18.0) 138.3 (-4.3) 66% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 1, 2026 SIE 76 – 61 RID
Jan 4, 2026 SIE 74 – 65 RID
Mar 11, 2025 RID 78 – 76 SIE
Feb 8, 2025 RID 61 – 59 SIE
Feb 3, 2024 RID 91 – 50 SIE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SIE RID
Overall 15-14 14-19
Conference 12-8 8-12
Home 8-5 7-6
Away 7-8 4-11
Neutral 0-1 3-2
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 66.3 67.3
Avg Pts Against 69.2 69.7
Massey -5.9 (#272) -7.9 (#301)
Bradley-Terry -0.24 (#194) -1.56 (#297)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.69 (#221) -2.00 (#305)
RPI 0.497 (#176) 0.418 (#311)
Shooting & Four Factors SIE RID
FG% 43.2% 39.3%
3PT% 35.1% 30.3%
REB / G 32.8 37.3
OREB / G 8.2 11.1
AST / TO 0.76 0.95
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.2% 43.5%
TOV% 19.7% 17.5%
ORB% 24.1% 28.5%
FT Rate 18.4% 19.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.3% 49.7%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 19.2%
DRB% 72.5% 71.6%
Opp FT Rate 22.8% 24.2%

Game Analysis

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