Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Under |
| Money | L-MD +120 NAVY -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +1 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -2.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -3.1 (+2.1) | 126.5 (-15.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -1.7 (+0.7) | 130.3 (-19.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -2.2 (+1.2) | 130.9 (-19.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -2.4 (+1.4) | 128.7 (-17.7) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NAVY 78 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NAVY 87 – 71 L-MD |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 68 L-MD |
| Jan 11, 2025 | L-MD 75 – 74 NAVY |
| Mar 6, 2024 | NAVY 64 – 48 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 60.8 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#262) | 0.8 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#239) | -0.13 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#249) | 0.12 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#231) | 0.494 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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