Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +5 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -8.8 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -8.2 (+13.2) | 126.7 (-15.7) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -7.4 (+12.4) | 130.0 (-19.0) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -7.3 (+12.3) | 130.1 (-19.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -8.2 (+13.2) | 129.1 (-18.1) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | TOW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TOW 75 – 65 NE |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TOW 80 – 73 NE |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TOW 83 – 76 NE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NE 67 – 59 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-8 | 12-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 62.4 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#275) | 5.9 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#269) | 1.28 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#262) | 1.64 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#290) | 0.545 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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