Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UNC +145 DUKE -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +20 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -3.9 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -1.4 (-18.6) | 154.6 (-0.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -1.4 (-18.6) | 151.4 (+2.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -0.9 (-19.1) | 153.1 (+0.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -1.1 (-18.9) | 153.8 (+0.2) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 16-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#45) | 17.6 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#46) | 3.03 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#46) | 4.36 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#25) | 0.626 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 11.5% |
Game Analysis
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