Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +6 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -12.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.5 (-5.5) | 149.8 (+8.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -11.0 (-5.0) | 153.9 (+4.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -11.0 (-5.0) | 154.8 (+3.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -11.7 (-5.7) | 153.2 (+4.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PUR 80 – 72 MICH |
| Feb 17, 2026 | MICH 91 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 86 – 68 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MICH 75 – 73 PUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PUR 91 – 64 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#6) | 10.3 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#8) | 1.48 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.35 (#8) | 2.07 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#11) | 0.582 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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