Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +9 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -6.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -5.4 (+3.6) | 156.4 (+20.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -4.0 (+5.0) | 155.0 (+22.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -3.9 (+5.1) | 156.1 (+20.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -3.8 (+5.2) | 154.8 (+22.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | MCN 75 – 64 NWST |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MCN 92 – 54 NWST |
| Mar 11, 2025 | MCN 83 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MCN 65 – 50 NWST |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MCN 92 – 69 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 5-9 |
| Home | 6-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 2-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 82.6 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#306) | -11.8 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#318) | -1.94 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#315) | -2.22 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#277) | 0.450 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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