Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -4.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -4.2 (+1.2) | 150.3 (-5.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -3.6 (+0.6) | 151.0 (-6.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -4.0 (+1.0) | 151.1 (-6.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -5.0 (+2.0) | 150.9 (-5.9) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNCO 78 – 77 NAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | NAU 81 – 77 UNCO |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 73 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNCO 87 – 69 NAU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 74 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 13-7 |
| Home | 5-10 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#326) | -2.8 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#309) | -0.33 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#314) | -0.54 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#281) | 0.513 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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