Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +5 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -9.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -7.5 (-2.5) | 132.5 (-13.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -7.0 (-2.0) | 134.2 (-15.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -7.4 (-2.4) | 134.4 (-15.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -7.4 (-2.4) | 134.7 (-15.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FLA 94 – 75 MISS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MISS 103 – 85 FLA |
| Feb 15, 2023 | FLA 79 – 64 MISS |
| Jan 25, 2022 | MISS 70 – 54 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#36) | 5.0 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#67) | 1.08 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#67) | 1.32 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#77) | 0.526 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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