Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MISS +700 FLA -1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +19 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -13.3 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -12.1 (-6.9) | 146.5 (+22.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -10.6 (-8.4) | 148.6 (+20.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -10.8 (-8.2) | 145.2 (+23.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -11.5 (-7.5) | 145.0 (+24.0) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MISS 103 – 85 FLA |
| Feb 15, 2023 | FLA 79 – 64 MISS |
| Feb 5, 2022 | FLA 62 – 57 MISS |
| Jan 25, 2022 | MISS 70 – 54 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 16-2 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 87.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#84) | 23.6 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#94) | 3.36 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#95) | 4.64 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#137) | 0.637 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 46.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 16.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 42.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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