Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
| Money | MISS +122 FLA -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +18 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -2.1 (+20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -2.0 (+16.0) | 158.7 (+29.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -1.2 (+19.2) | 156.1 (+31.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -2.3 (+15.7) | 157.8 (+30.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -2.1 (+15.9) | 158.4 (+29.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FLA 94 – 75 MISS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 71 MISS |
| Feb 15, 2023 | FLA 79 – 64 MISS |
| Feb 5, 2022 | FLA 62 – 57 MISS |
| Jan 25, 2022 | MISS 70 – 54 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 85.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#94) | 11.8 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#3) | 1.48 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#7) | 2.16 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#14) | 0.571 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 45.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 15.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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