Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | MISS +160 FLA -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +16 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -7.0 (+23.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -5.0 (+21.0) | 134.2 (-10.2) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -5.1 (+21.1) | 133.6 (-9.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -4.7 (+20.7) | 136.0 (-12.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -5.4 (+21.4) | 135.4 (-11.4) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FLA 94 – 75 MISS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MISS 103 – 85 FLA |
| Feb 15, 2023 | FLA 79 – 64 MISS |
| Feb 5, 2022 | FLA 62 – 57 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Away | 2-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#130) | 12.4 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#147) | 1.69 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#139) | 2.11 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#181) | 0.569 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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