Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -1400 MISS +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +19 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -11.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -13.2 (+5.8) | 155.2 (+5.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -12.3 (+6.7) | 155.6 (+5.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -12.3 (+6.7) | 158.0 (+3.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -11.8 (+7.2) | 156.9 (+4.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FLA 94 – 75 MISS |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MISS 103 – 85 FLA |
| Feb 15, 2023 | FLA 79 – 64 MISS |
| Feb 5, 2022 | FLA 62 – 57 MISS |
| Jan 25, 2022 | MISS 70 – 54 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 23.5 (#4) | 15.3 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.40 (#2) | 3.31 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.68 (#2) | 4.18 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#5) | 0.617 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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