Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -600 MISS +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +15 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -9.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -7.9 (+7.1) | 140.3 (+2.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -8.0 (+7.0) | 140.3 (+2.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -8.2 (+6.8) | 139.1 (+3.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -8.7 (+6.3) | 139.5 (+3.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FLA 94 – 75 MISS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MISS 103 – 85 FLA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | FLA 62 – 57 MISS |
| Jan 25, 2022 | MISS 70 – 54 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-10 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#51) | 3.6 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#69) | 0.29 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#66) | 0.69 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#82) | 0.526 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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