If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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90–35 on winners spread MAE 8.8 125 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky -4.4 138.3 34% 78–87 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State +1.3 145.3 58% 59–90 ✓
Creighton @ Seton Hall +4.6 136.6 68% 55–74 ✓
Princeton @ Cornell +0.1 157.7 45% 83–88 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Columbia -8.1 153.3 19% 81–66 ✓
Harvard @ Brown +4.5 143.9 67% 65–50 ✗
Milwaukee @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.7 140.4 65% 60–70 ✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +10.1 136.6 86% 69–85 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Peter's +5.3 143.1 72% 74–83 ✓
Rider @ Siena +4.3 135.2 65% 74–60 ✗
Iona @ Canisius -10.4 145.7 15% 70–62 ✓
Manhattan @ Niagara +3.8 135.9 68% 74–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Monmouth +5.9 139.2 75% 56–59 ✓
Toledo @ Ball State -9.9 156.3 20% 83–93 ✗
San Diego State @ Colorado State +1.7 132.6 62% 57–58 ✓
Nevada @ Fresno State +11.6 134.8 86% 56–73 ✓
UConn @ Villanova +5.8 135.1 76% 74–85 ✓
Illinois @ Indiana +1.3 139.0 63% 74–57 ✗
St. John's @ Butler -2.1 142.2 41% 75–72 ✓
Wake Forest @ Florida State -0.3 149.7 50% 68–60 ✓
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State +0.9 135.5 55% 55–64 ✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis -9.9 122.7 14% 66–49 ✓
Mercer @ Chattanooga +12.2 137.9 86% 68–77 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +12.5 138.0 86% 58–56 ✗
Auburn @ Georgia -14.2 155.9 13% 74–72 ✓
Tennessee @ South Carolina -5.5 136.5 35% 81–57 ✓
Holy Cross @ Army +8.8 139.5 78% 69–65 ✗
Long Island University @ Wagner +12.4 145.0 87% 64–79 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +2.6 137.4 58% 82–91 ✓
Vermont @ UMass Lowell -7.2 138.4 22% 78–67 ✓
Fordham @ Saint Joseph's +3.5 137.4 67% 69–72 ✓
Samford @ The Citadel -0.1 155.1 46% 93–107 ✗
Northwestern @ Nebraska -4.8 152.4 30% 87–63 ✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia -3.2 137.2 34% 60–53 ✓
Iowa State @ Texas +4.2 124.7 73% 41–63 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +9.4 141.7 83% 69–65 ✗
Bucknell @ Lafayette +4.1 142.8 69% 72–74 ✓
Tulsa @ Temple +5.8 138.1 72% 58–67 ✓
East Carolina @ Tulane +6.6 144.4 80% 66–86 ✓
Boston University @ Lehigh -3.0 140.8 40% 80–74 ✓
Merrimack @ Saint Francis +1.5 131.5 54% 65–64 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Gardner-Webb +9.7 135.0 81% 62–69 ✓
Louisville @ Syracuse +6.0 151.5 71% 69–92 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia Tech -4.3 143.2 38% 64–69 ✗
Maine @ Binghamton +11.0 134.2 88% 60–69 ✓
Youngstown State @ UIC -0.2 146.6 45% 66–64 ✓
South Alabama @ Georgia State -2.5 139.9 43% 62–69 ✗
Bradley @ Evansville -9.9 131.2 17% 76–41 ✓
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island +6.5 142.2 72% 78–67 ✗
George Mason @ La Salle -5.5 139.5 33% 78–83 ✗
Dayton @ Saint Louis +4.2 139.5 72% 61–72 ✓
Davidson @ George Washington -9.7 142.9 18% 78–73 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State +7.4 143.9 78% 65–73 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota +1.8 154.8 65% 85–92 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +6.8 144.3 78% 60–62 ✓
James Madison @ Hofstra +7.8 155.7 79% 78–85 ✓
Towson @ Northeastern -7.3 130.1 26% 53–58 ✗
Western Michigan @ Ohio +18.6 142.5 91% 64–77 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +7.3 136.7 79% 71–90 ✓
Michigan @ Purdue +11.0 154.8 86% 76–82 ✓
UTEP @ Rice +2.8 144.0 60% 72–70 ✗
Utah Tech @ Stephen F. Austin +11.3 142.0 85% 52–81 ✓
Utah Valley @ Sam Houston +0.4 133.9 53% 57–54 ✗
Notre Dame @ NC State -1.1 144.7 41% 69–57 ✓
UL Monroe @ Little Rock -0.8 143.0 38% 75–72 ✓
Alabama State @ Grambling +3.3 142.8 65% 80–72 ✗
Ole Miss @ Florida +7.4 134.4 77% 57–62 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas +2.4 154.5 62% 59–83 ✓
Michigan State @ Rutgers -5.2 131.3 33% 63–84 ✗
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +4.1 141.7 70% 68–69 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard +5.9 142.5 75% 64–72 ✓
Colgate @ American University -9.5 138.5 18% 86–68 ✓
Washington State @ California -6.8 132.0 23% 68–64 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara +4.6 141.5 70% 48–84 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Bethune-Cookman -0.5 140.2 41% 67–68 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ UAB +10.7 145.6 81% 75–97 ✓
Southern Miss @ Florida Atlantic +13.6 138.3 86% 57–84 ✓
Marshall @ Charlotte +4.4 148.8 71% 64–88 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona -4.0 151.1 31% 74–71 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Abilene Christian +9.6 157.8 84% 66–83 ✓
Sacred Heart @ St. Francis Brooklyn +2.1 147.2 61% 66–62 ✗
Bryant @ Mount St. Mary's +1.5 145.4 59% 62–61 ✗
Campbell @ South Carolina Upstate +1.4 140.3 57% 80–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Hartford +0.4 135.1 58% 71–52 ✗
Troy @ Georgia Southern +0.3 133.2 51% 61–52 ✗
Duquesne @ VCU +12.1 129.4 87% 62–71 ✓
Charleston @ Elon -2.7 152.2 38% 66–64 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ William & Mary -5.2 138.8 27% 92–70 ✓
Missouri @ Texas A&M +9.9 137.5 81% 70–66 ✗
Stetson @ Central Arkansas -1.6 153.1 48% 75–79 ✗
Austin Peay @ Morehead State +9.5 134.2 81% 52–77 ✓
Tennessee State @ UT Martin +3.7 141.5 64% 69–61 ✗
Texas Southern @ Florida A&M -3.7 133.8 32% 67–55 ✓
North Florida @ North Alabama +2.6 135.2 56% 71–58 ✗
Buffalo @ Central Michigan -9.7 150.4 16% 74–54 ✓
USC @ Arizona +12.4 145.3 86% 63–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -9.9 128.8 14% 69–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State +11.5 141.5 88% 56–63 ✓
Navy @ Loyola Maryland -2.2 130.9 39% 56–55 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Incarnate Word -7.2 144.7 31% 70–78 ✗
Northwestern State @ McNeese +3.9 156.1 71% 84–93 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +0.6 129.5 54% 78–70 ✗
Miami @ Virginia +0.5 131.5 53% 58–71 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +0.2 157.0 49% 77–68 ✗
Louisiana @ Arkansas State +2.2 138.4 64% 58–67 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green +4.6 152.7 70% 65–87 ✓
Winthrop @ Hampton -5.4 145.0 25% 69–57 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern -11.0 142.5 15% 69–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ Jacksonville State +6.2 131.8 69% 58–64 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina -0.9 153.1 43% 87–67 ✓
Penn State @ Wisconsin +6.6 134.2 77% 49–51 ✓
LSU @ Vanderbilt -5.6 132.6 32% 66–75 ✗
SMU @ Wichita State +0.7 137.0 56% 57–72 ✓
Oregon State @ Colorado +9.8 139.1 83% 63–86 ✓
UTSA @ North Texas +19.6 127.1 90% 45–69 ✓
Seattle U @ New Mexico State +6.1 140.1 74% 64–79 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell +2.4 154.5 60% 73–68 ✗
Dartmouth @ Brown +4.3 138.8 68% 60–62 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Texas State +2.3 136.4 63% 64–69 ✓
App State @ UT Arlington -0.3 132.4 43% 70–61 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Drake +5.7 150.6 73% 74–69 ✗
UNLV @ Utah State +9.1 140.6 83% 75–90 ✓
San José State @ Boise State +17.5 130.1 91% 60–76 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +13.9 133.9 88% 64–73 ✓
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -7.1 139.5 23% 70–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.