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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–16 on winners spread MAE 9.2 57 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State +9.5 136.9 84% 65–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion +0.5 143.3 52% 77–60 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International -4.5 144.9 34% 86–82 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Diego -4.1 149.3 33% 79–66 ✓
UNC Asheville @ High Point +0.8 135.1 59% 83–91 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh -7.0 133.0 25% 76–71 ✓
Princeton @ Columbia -11.9 157.2 15% 85–63 ✓
Harvard @ Yale +4.8 143.5 73% 55–58 ✓
Stony Brook @ NJIT -4.1 142.8 33% 62–65 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMBC +4.0 136.2 71% 77–88 ✓
Liberty @ Eastern Kentucky -4.8 146.0 23% 91–84 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Bellarmine +5.0 137.3 73% 75–70 ✗
Oakland @ Wright State -2.4 152.4 40% 64–75 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +3.0 136.3 66% 74–68 ✗
Indiana State @ Valparaiso +1.8 142.3 60% 72–79 ✓
Kentucky @ Alabama -1.8 158.6 39% 66–55 ✓
UCF @ Memphis +5.1 145.3 71% 60–88 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis -0.1 136.6 49% 65–68 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Murray State +18.3 142.7 88% 59–79 ✓
Montana State @ Weber State +4.5 148.3 63% 78–57 ✗
Montana @ Idaho State -10.0 132.2 15% 63–86 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Houston Christian -4.6 150.3 32% 80–93 ✗
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +10.9 139.2 85% 50–56 ✓
Chicago State @ Tarleton State +11.4 137.1 85% 54–57 ✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine +1.6 140.6 56% 64–70 ✓
San Francisco @ Portland -12.3 141.7 17% 74–71 ✓
Kansas State @ TCU +5.9 130.6 72% 75–63 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Illinois State +0.3 140.1 45% 75–69 ✗
St. Thomas @ Oral Roberts +10.0 159.5 85% 66–88 ✓
Western Illinois @ Kansas City +1.0 147.8 60% 82–91 ✓
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -6.1 157.5 22% 89–79 ✓
New Mexico @ Air Force +0.8 139.4 50% 91–77 ✗
Oregon @ Utah -2.8 143.3 37% 80–77 ✓
Belmont @ Tennessee Tech -13.2 151.1 13% 100–92 ✓
Mississippi State @ Arkansas +6.3 147.5 78% 55–63 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Southern Utah +3.5 156.2 71% 72–84 ✓
Gonzaga @ BYU -11.3 158.2 18% 90–57 ✓
UCLA @ Arizona State -10.5 134.3 18% 84–87 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Fullerton +7.4 134.0 77% 61–75 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge -10.2 127.9 15% 75–70 ✓
Sacramento State @ Portland State +4.4 138.8 68% 65–73 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Saint Mary's +16.5 133.7 90% 60–71 ✓
Providence @ Georgetown -7.5 146.1 21% 71–52 ✓
Maryland @ Ohio State +9.1 142.1 82% 67–82 ✓
Iona @ Niagara -6.2 141.4 30% 71–80 ✗
Manhattan @ Canisius +0.8 142.8 55% 70–77 ✓
Green Bay @ Purdue Fort Wayne +6.7 134.4 74% 55–71 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Missouri State +1.9 139.4 62% 71–62 ✗
Monmouth @ Quinnipiac -4.1 145.4 28% 76–63 ✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's +3.4 138.5 68% 50–66 ✓
Siena @ Fairfield +5.9 132.1 76% 62–56 ✗
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State +10.8 144.6 85% 71–84 ✓
Nevada @ San Diego State +12.6 130.1 87% 63–65 ✓
Washington @ Stanford +5.7 139.5 71% 69–87 ✓
Akron @ Miami (OH) -1.2 139.7 43% 71–59 ✓
Minnesota @ Iowa +10.1 149.7 81% 59–71 ✓
Houston @ Cincinnati -6.0 131.4 29% 80–58 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.