They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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83–46 on winners spread MAE 8.9 129 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rice @ Charlotte +7.2 141.2 78% 70–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Iona +4.0 142.8 69% 71–70 ✗
Providence @ Villanova +9.9 161.2 81% 73–87 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Quinnipiac +8.8 150.3 82% 98–91 ✗
Dartmouth @ Yale +15.7 151.3 89% 68–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Green Bay +9.4 152.0 84% 89–82 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy -3.7 154.9 38% 77–90 ✗
Marist @ Canisius -11.0 122.2 17% 88–86 ✓
Rider @ Manhattan +5.3 142.6 72% 90–95 ✓
Harvard @ Brown -2.7 135.0 40% 69–59 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Columbia +4.5 149.1 68% 67–72 ✓
Michigan @ Michigan State -0.5 144.2 43% 83–71 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis +13.9 148.2 88% 71–102 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee -1.9 148.4 43% 76–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Peter's +7.1 133.3 76% 58–66 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ VCU +19.5 148.3 91% 75–89 ✓
Boise State @ Grand Canyon +1.5 139.8 55% 69–86 ✓
UNLV @ Nevada +10.5 148.1 85% 76–89 ✓
Duke @ Virginia Tech -11.7 144.1 16% 72–58 ✓
Cincinnati @ Houston +13.4 134.5 87% 54–76 ✓
Texas Tech @ UCF -2.0 153.4 42% 80–88 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Clemson +13.2 135.9 88% 52–63 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +7.8 142.5 80% 71–84 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall +10.0 137.4 83% 64–69 ✓
Georgetown @ Butler +7.4 149.2 77% 77–64 ✗
NC State @ Wake Forest -3.5 152.5 36% 96–78 ✓
Ball State @ Toledo +10.2 141.8 86% 55–73 ✓
Campbell @ William & Mary +9.5 154.3 83% 104–96 ✗
Stony Brook @ Elon +3.7 148.5 67% 72–68 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel +0.0 145.4 48% 66–71 ✓
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +0.7 140.3 52% 76–72 ✗
Holy Cross @ Army +1.0 142.6 53% 68–69 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +5.4 146.5 71% 66–71 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +3.6 144.0 68% 66–68 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +1.7 146.5 59% 71–83 ✓
Stonehill @ Le Moyne +6.4 134.4 75% 65–54 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner +2.7 134.4 61% 72–75 ✓
LSU @ South Carolina -2.0 146.6 43% 92–87 ✓
Texas A&M @ Georgia +5.1 171.2 69% 92–77 ✗
Virginia @ Boston College -12.3 137.8 15% 73–66 ✓
Arizona @ Arizona State -14.4 157.1 15% 87–74 ✓
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech -9.3 149.1 20% 91–75 ✓
SMU @ Louisville +7.4 157.4 76% 74–88 ✓
Colgate @ Lehigh -2.7 146.3 40% 76–77 ✗
Lafayette @ American University +8.1 138.2 80% 67–65 ✗
Fordham @ George Washington +12.9 140.0 88% 79–65 ✗
Ohio State @ Wisconsin +3.5 154.2 70% 82–92 ✓
Boston University @ Bucknell -0.9 141.8 45% 97–103 ✗
Radford @ Presbyterian +2.4 146.7 64% 93–84 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Chicago State -5.2 128.4 25% 74–78 ✗
Ohio @ Buffalo +5.2 150.2 72% 95–83 ✗
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut -0.9 140.4 45% 80–59 ✓
Maine @ UMass Lowell +2.1 129.7 59% 77–91 ✓
Charleston @ Northeastern -2.2 151.3 39% 89–84 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Drexel +5.3 134.6 73% 60–61 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +5.1 126.4 68% 50–82 ✓
Hofstra @ Monmouth -0.9 140.7 46% 73–57 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +16.3 150.4 91% 81–95 ✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State +0.6 139.1 53% 64–81 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma -1.4 153.3 47% 79–69 ✓
Queens University @ Bellarmine -2.0 160.7 42% 75–78 ✗
North Alabama @ Stetson +3.3 141.9 66% 68–66 ✗
Lipscomb @ North Florida -9.5 159.8 17% 100–94 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle +0.1 134.3 49% 67–58 ✗
High Point @ Longwood -8.1 155.4 19% 71–59 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -11.6 131.9 14% 79–62 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State +10.6 145.6 86% 72–95 ✓
Marshall @ Arkansas State +0.9 158.6 61% 70–61 ✗
James Madison @ Southern Miss +0.0 143.0 49% 65–73 ✓
Idaho State @ Weber State +2.6 147.3 64% 79–81 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville +1.0 143.1 56% 68–49 ✗
California Baptist @ UT Arlington +1.1 126.3 56% 87–77 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Missouri State +2.8 135.4 64% 67–74 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +15.7 150.7 89% 61–85 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State -1.4 149.5 45% 69–54 ✓
Mississippi State @ Missouri +5.8 148.0 73% 79–84 ✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State -0.9 146.7 50% 79–78 ✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa +10.3 128.0 84% 55–71 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard +4.7 139.4 71% 60–88 ✓
Baylor @ West Virginia +1.8 136.9 63% 63–53 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -10.7 139.2 15% 78–70 ✓
Grambling @ Jackson State -4.9 145.9 32% 69–66 ✓
California @ Miami +6.4 141.2 75% 86–85 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +9.9 137.8 86% 71–87 ✓
Omaha @ Denver +1.1 151.2 57% 84–82 ✗
New Hampshire @ Bryant -1.7 129.0 38% 84–92 ✗
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State -7.4 142.0 22% 89–82 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana -2.0 138.6 40% 60–69 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado +5.2 156.1 72% 71–74 ✓
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian +3.9 143.5 69% 79–76 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee +3.8 139.3 68% 65–60 ✗
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech -0.2 137.1 45% 77–87 ✗
BYU @ Kansas +3.9 150.6 66% 82–90 ✓
Davidson @ Richmond +4.4 138.2 68% 79–54 ✗
Morgan State @ Coppin State -2.8 145.4 36% 89–80 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +7.5 130.8 78% 71–73 ✓
NJIT @ Vermont +10.1 136.8 86% 79–77 ✗
App State @ Troy +7.2 138.7 77% 66–44 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas +8.0 149.3 80% 81–90 ✓
Austin Peay @ West Georgia -7.6 143.8 24% 81–78 ✓
UT Martin @ Western Illinois -10.3 130.9 15% 84–44 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -1.8 132.4 45% 77–59 ✓
Southern @ Alcorn State -4.3 144.9 31% 73–78 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State -4.5 123.4 28% 57–65 ✗
Indiana @ UCLA +2.5 138.9 63% 98–97 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield -6.6 149.9 27% 80–72 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Incarnate Word -0.9 134.9 45% 106–93 ✓
Montana State @ Portland State +2.5 136.6 64% 54–63 ✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +2.3 149.4 63% 65–59 ✗
New Mexico State @ Kennesaw State +2.1 152.4 64% 53–76 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M +0.7 152.5 56% 78–85 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M +3.1 134.7 62% 65–72 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt +14.7 150.4 87% 68–71 ✓
Bradley @ Drake +2.6 148.4 65% 87–73 ✗
Portland @ Washington State +5.7 147.1 76% 74–104 ✓
Oregon State @ San Diego +1.8 146.3 62% 78–76 ✗
Notre Dame @ Syracuse +2.7 142.1 65% 72–86 ✓
Dartmouth @ Brown +0.2 140.2 51% 77–70 ✗
Princeton @ Columbia +7.9 140.4 81% 80–68 ✗
North Dakota State @ South Dakota -7.7 154.3 24% 89–84 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts +4.9 144.7 72% 67–70 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell +3.4 160.5 67% 91–81 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Stephen F. Austin +12.5 133.7 87% 58–85 ✓
Northwestern State @ New Orleans +5.1 148.7 71% 64–75 ✓
Nicholls @ East Texas A&M +0.2 142.2 53% 72–68 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Utah -2.0 159.3 43% 81–69 ✓
Stanford @ Florida State +0.7 147.8 53% 80–88 ✓
George Mason @ St. Bonaventure -3.1 141.0 35% 77–73 ✓
Kentucky @ Arkansas +7.1 157.7 77% 85–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.