Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -575 SMU +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +14 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -7.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -7.7 (+6.3) | 158.1 (+3.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -7.4 (+6.6) | 157.4 (+4.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -7.6 (+6.4) | 159.0 (+3.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -7.9 (+6.1) | 156.7 (+5.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | LOU 62 – 58 SMU |
| Feb 18, 2026 | SMU 95 – 85 LOU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | LOU 98 – 73 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 84.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 20.6 (#12) | 15.9 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#29) | 2.71 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#28) | 3.38 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#36) | 0.631 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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