Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | SMU +160 LOU -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +10 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -3.8 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -1.1 (+11.1) | 164.8 (+15.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -1.9 (+11.9) | 163.9 (+16.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -1.0 (+11.0) | 163.1 (+16.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -2.5 (+12.5) | 163.0 (+17.0) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | LOU 62 – 58 SMU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | LOU 88 – 74 SMU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | LOU 98 – 73 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#30) | 22.3 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#41) | 3.03 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#39) | 3.92 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#31) | 0.614 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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