Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | UNF +490 LIP -675 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +6 | 194 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -10.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -10.0 (+4.0) | 159.7 (+34.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -10.1 (+4.1) | 157.3 (+36.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -9.5 (+3.5) | 159.8 (+34.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -8.5 (+2.5) | 161.2 (+32.8) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | LIP 82 – 74 UNF |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LIP 96 – 64 UNF |
| Feb 1, 2024 | UNF 85 – 76 LIP |
| Feb 17, 2023 | UNF 114 – 111 LIP |
| Mar 2, 2022 | LIP 74 – 65 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-8 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-14 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 89.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -13.9 (#345) | -0.2 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#348) | 0.14 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.20 (#347) | 0.13 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#329) | 0.541 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.9% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 60.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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