Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BC +675 UVA -1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +7 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -14.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -10.9 (+3.9) | 139.3 (-0.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -12.6 (+5.6) | 141.6 (-2.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -12.3 (+5.3) | 137.8 (+1.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -11.5 (+4.5) | 137.6 (+1.4) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2025 | UVA 74 – 56 BC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UVA 66 – 60 BC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UVA 72 – 68 BC |
| Feb 23, 2023 | BC 63 – 48 UVA |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UVA 76 – 57 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 30-6 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#150) | 18.4 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#205) | 3.20 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#170) | 4.11 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#216) | 0.628 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 40.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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