Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -380 BC +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +18 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -9.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -6.3 (+11.7) | 129.2 (+0.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -7.7 (+10.3) | 125.5 (+4.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.2 (+11.8) | 131.7 (-1.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.2 (+11.8) | 130.7 (-0.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UVA 73 – 66 BC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UVA 66 – 60 BC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UVA 72 – 68 BC |
| Feb 23, 2023 | BC 63 – 48 UVA |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UVA 76 – 57 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#136) | -3.8 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#118) | -0.30 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#116) | -0.54 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#144) | 0.473 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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