Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -250 BC +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +6 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -1.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -0.2 (+6.2) | 125.8 (+0.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -0.6 (+5.4) | 123.4 (+2.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.8 (+5.2) | 126.4 (-0.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.6 (+5.4) | 126.7 (-0.7) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UVA 73 – 66 BC |
| Jan 22, 2025 | UVA 74 – 56 BC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UVA 72 – 68 BC |
| Feb 23, 2023 | BC 63 – 48 UVA |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UVA 76 – 57 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#68) | 7.5 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#37) | 1.31 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#55) | 1.74 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#40) | 0.549 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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