Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | BC -111 UVA -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | BC -1.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -1.2 (-5.2) | 132.8 (+7.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -0.0 (-4.0) | 132.2 (+7.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -1.0 (-5.0) | 133.2 (+6.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BC -0.2 (-4.2) | 132.0 (+8.0) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UVA 73 – 66 BC |
| Jan 22, 2025 | UVA 74 – 56 BC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UVA 66 – 60 BC |
| Feb 23, 2023 | BC 63 – 48 UVA |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UVA 76 – 57 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 59.8 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#87) | 8.6 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#94) | 1.94 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#89) | 1.97 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#102) | 0.582 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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