Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | BC +320 UVA -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +15 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -9.8 (+24.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -7.9 (+22.9) | 131.0 (-20.0) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -7.9 (+22.9) | 128.6 (-17.6) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -8.5 (+23.5) | 132.0 (-21.0) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -8.1 (+23.1) | 131.7 (-20.7) | 20% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UVA 73 – 66 BC |
| Jan 22, 2025 | UVA 74 – 56 BC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UVA 66 – 60 BC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UVA 72 – 68 BC |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UVA 76 – 57 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 60.5 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#202) | 11.9 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#143) | 2.96 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#133) | 3.71 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#174) | 0.627 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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