Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -1600 BC +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +19 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -18.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -15.4 (+3.6) | 131.9 (+1.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -14.3 (+4.7) | 126.3 (+6.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -14.9 (+4.1) | 133.3 (-0.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -15.3 (+3.7) | 133.3 (-0.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UVA 73 – 66 BC |
| Jan 22, 2025 | UVA 74 – 56 BC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UVA 66 – 60 BC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UVA 72 – 68 BC |
| Feb 23, 2023 | BC 63 – 48 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#25) | -1.8 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#11) | 0.05 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#7) | 0.19 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#9) | 0.486 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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