Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK +340 NDSU -440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +5 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -8.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -7.7 (+2.7) | 154.3 (+18.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -7.4 (+2.4) | 153.0 (+20.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -8.0 (+3.0) | 154.8 (+18.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -7.0 (+2.0) | 155.3 (+17.7) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SDAK 88 – 68 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 14-2 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-10 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.7 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#285) | 3.3 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#249) | 0.72 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#245) | 0.83 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#313) | 0.536 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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