Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -800 SDAK +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +23 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -13.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -11.4 (+11.6) | 154.1 (-9.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -11.3 (+11.7) | 158.9 (-13.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -11.2 (+11.8) | 155.5 (-10.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -11.1 (+11.9) | 154.0 (-9.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SDAK 88 – 68 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 10-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 81.7 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#140) | -7.2 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#155) | -1.13 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#145) | -1.27 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#165) | 0.422 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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