Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | NDSU -130 SDAK +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +1 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -6.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -5.7 (-6.7) | 164.9 (+4.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -4.6 (-5.6) | 164.9 (+4.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -6.4 (-7.4) | 165.0 (+4.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -5.6 (-6.6) | 162.6 (+6.4) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
| Mar 1, 2024 | SDAK 88 – 68 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 86.6 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#121) | -3.6 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#149) | -0.50 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#148) | -0.84 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#139) | 0.471 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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