Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | SDAK +148 NDSU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +20 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -2.4 (+22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -2.2 (+22.2) | 152.5 (+3.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -3.2 (+23.2) | 152.4 (+3.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -2.2 (+22.2) | 154.0 (+2.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -2.5 (+22.5) | 153.9 (+2.1) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#320) | -4.0 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#313) | -0.48 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#317) | -0.81 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#336) | 0.489 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.9% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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