Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -118 FGCU -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +19 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -0.2 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -0.8 (-19.8) | 144.0 (-27.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -1.0 (-20.0) | 143.1 (-26.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -1.0 (-20.0) | 143.7 (-26.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -0.5 (-19.5) | 144.3 (-27.3) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FGCU 86 – 84 JAX |
| Feb 18, 2025 | FGCU 72 – 56 JAX |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FGCU 83 – 79 JAX |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FGCU 59 – 57 JAX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | FGCU 80 – 70 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-14 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#289) | -4.6 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#255) | -1.24 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#265) | -1.30 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#239) | 0.451 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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