Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | JAX -140 FGCU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +4 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -3.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -3.2 (-7.2) | 135.1 (+26.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -3.5 (-7.5) | 134.2 (+27.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -2.8 (-6.8) | 135.1 (+26.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -3.2 (-7.2) | 136.3 (+25.7) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FGCU 86 – 84 JAX |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FGCU 68 – 49 JAX |
| Feb 18, 2025 | FGCU 72 – 56 JAX |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FGCU 59 – 57 JAX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | FGCU 80 – 70 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#160) | 0.4 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#124) | -0.18 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#111) | -0.24 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#125) | 0.495 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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