Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -110 FGCU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +2 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -0.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -0.6 (-1.4) | 134.6 (-18.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -0.0 (-2.0) | 131.5 (-15.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -0.0 (-2.0) | 132.6 (-16.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -0.1 (-1.9) | 133.6 (-17.6) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FGCU 86 – 84 JAX |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FGCU 68 – 49 JAX |
| Feb 18, 2025 | FGCU 72 – 56 JAX |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FGCU 83 – 79 JAX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | FGCU 80 – 70 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#302) | -4.1 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#272) | -0.87 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#273) | -0.92 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#274) | 0.448 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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