Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | FGCU -310 JAX +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +2 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -7.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -5.5 (-3.5) | 142.7 (+27.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -5.2 (-3.2) | 140.2 (+29.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -5.4 (-3.4) | 140.0 (+30.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -5.3 (-3.3) | 141.1 (+28.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | FGCU 68 – 49 JAX |
| Feb 18, 2025 | FGCU 72 – 56 JAX |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FGCU 83 – 79 JAX |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FGCU 59 – 57 JAX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | FGCU 80 – 70 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#247) | -9.7 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#279) | -1.48 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#256) | -1.96 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#295) | 0.442 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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