Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | FGCU -135 JAX +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +16 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -3.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -2.6 (+13.4) | 141.1 (-13.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -1.7 (+14.3) | 139.5 (-11.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -2.1 (+13.9) | 141.0 (-13.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -1.9 (+14.1) | 142.1 (-14.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FGCU 86 – 84 JAX |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FGCU 68 – 49 JAX |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FGCU 83 – 79 JAX |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FGCU 59 – 57 JAX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | FGCU 80 – 70 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#168) | -0.9 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#187) | 0.08 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#189) | 0.32 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#184) | 0.513 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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