Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MAN -258 RID +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +5 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -5.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+37.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -4.5 (+0.5) | 144.7 (+40.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -5.3 (-0.3) | 142.6 (+42.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -5.3 (-0.3) | 144.3 (+40.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -5.3 (-0.3) | 144.6 (+40.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | MAN 74 – 71 RID |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MAN 80 – 79 RID |
| Feb 18, 2024 | RID 104 – 62 MAN |
| Jan 13, 2024 | RID 71 – 58 MAN |
| Feb 5, 2023 | RID 67 – 56 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 4-25 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 7-7 | 4-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#341) | -15.6 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#314) | -3.85 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#318) | -4.81 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#294) | 0.385 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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