Betting Lines
| Spread | BCU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -102 BCU -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +15 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | BCU -0.4 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (-35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -0.3 (-15.3) | 153.4 (-30.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BCU -1.4 (-13.6) | 149.5 (-26.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BCU -1.1 (-13.9) | 151.4 (-28.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BCU -1.0 (-14.0) | 153.0 (-30.0) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | BCU 82 – 71 ALST |
| Feb 25, 2025 | BCU 70 – 68 ALST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BCU 67 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BCU 90 – 84 ALST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BCU 79 – 68 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-15 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#324) | -7.8 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#321) | -0.53 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#320) | -0.90 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#326) | 0.487 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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