Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -175 BCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +11 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -8.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -5.7 (-16.7) | 138.7 (+8.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -6.4 (-17.4) | 136.0 (+11.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -5.3 (-16.3) | 135.5 (+11.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -5.8 (-16.8) | 136.7 (+10.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | BCU 82 – 71 ALST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | BCU 69 – 54 ALST |
| Feb 25, 2025 | BCU 70 – 68 ALST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BCU 67 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BCU 90 – 84 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#274) | -10.6 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#212) | -1.53 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#224) | -1.94 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#203) | 0.401 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 35.7% |
Game Analysis
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